Learning from Disaster: Tools and Methods arising from recent postfire debris-flow disasters
Dr. Francis RengersÌý
Research GeologistÌý
Landslide Hazards ProgramÌý
United States Geological Survey (USGS)Ìý
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Wildfires frequently occur across the western United States, and while the fires themselves pose immediate dangers, they often trigger a cascade of subsequent hazards—including postfire debris flows, landslides, rockfall, and flooding—that threaten both lives and vital infrastructure. In this presentation, recent events such as the Grizzly Creek Fire in Glenwood Canyon, CO, and the Cameron Peak Fire in northern CO will serve as key case studies to illustrate how statistical models are used to assess the probability and volume of debris flows. A particular focus will be placed on the complex role wood dams play: these structures can effectively mitigate debris flow volumes when they contain material; however, they can significantly worsen conditions if they fail and release the accumulated debris. Finally, the presentation will highlight the development and application of a new nationwide early warning system, which leverages rain gauge networks to enhance real-time situational awareness regarding the onset and location of debris flows. This integrated approach offers valuable insights for managing the risks associated with postfire hazards and underscores the importance of new tools and methods in for emergency planning.