Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

Student meteorology society named local chapter of the year

Rachel Sauer — Tue, 22 Sep 2026 21:42:42 +0000

Student meteorology society named local chapter of the year Rachel Sauer Tue, 09/22/2026 - 15:42

Members of the CU �Ǹ�Թ� chapter of the American Meteorological Society on a tour of the NCAR Research Aviation Facility.

CU �Ǹ�Թ� chapter of the American Meteorological Society recognized for cultivating lasting student networks and leading impactful community outreach

The �Ǹ�Թ� chapter of the American Meteorological Society (CUBAMS) has been named local student chapter of the year by the national organization.

The honor recognizes the chapter “for cultivating lasting student networks, leading impactful community outreach and establishing a strong, visible presence throughout the American Meteorological Society.” It will be presented at the American Meteorological Society (AMS) annual meeting in Denver this January.

Members of the CU �Ǹ�Թ� chapter of the American Meteorological Society on a tour of the NCAR Research Aviation Facility.

“This AMS recognition highlights the dedication of our chapter and the broader (atmospheric and oceanic sciences) community to creating an academically supportive, professionally engaged and collaborative environment,” says member Amanda Bowden, a fourth-year PhD candidate in the CU �Ǹ�Թ� Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC). “It recognizes the efforts of our members to strengthen the atmospheric sciences community at CU �Ǹ�Թ� through professional development, education, outreach and service. It also demonstrates how our students and faculty contribute beyond the university by sharing their knowledge and giving back to the broader public community.”

CUBAMS was formed after ATOC began offering an undergraduate major in fall 2016, explains Andrew Winters, an associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences and CUBAMS faculty advisor. “A group of students came to me with interest in building one of these chapters as a way to help undergrads who are very much new to the program, to build community,” he says. “In 2021 we really initiated the chapter—students wrote a constitution; they got approved by national organization and got registered as a student organization at CU.”

Anna Hagberg, a senior majoring in applied mathematics and ATOC, says that when she joined CUBAMS, she had just changed her major to ATOC “and was looking for people that I could be friends with (and talk about the weather with). I was also curious about the possible career paths that existed within atmospheric and oceanic science.”

The student-led organization has organized events from tours of the NCAR Research Aviation Facility to eclipse viewing and a weather balloon launch, as well as tabling at AMS conferences.

Wade Julian, a senior ATOC major who also is pursuing an interdisciplinary climate science minor and a certificate in arctic studies, says that participating and serving as an officer in CUBAMS has been one of his most valuable CU �Ǹ�Թ� experiences.

“Through the chapter, I have developed a lot of leadership and organizational skills, especially through serving as an officer and helping plan events for our members,” Julian says. “I have also had opportunities to attend professional conferences, meet atmospheric scientists and learn about careers that I would not have been exposed to through my classes alone.

"These experiences have helped me become more confident about pursuing a career in atmospheric science and have given me a better idea of the areas of the field that I am interested in, particularly climate and arctic science.”

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Members of the CU �Ǹ�Թ� chapter of the American Meteorological Society at an eclipse viewing event.

Members of the CU �Ǹ�Թ� chapter of the American Meteorological Society launching a weather balloon.

CUBAMS officers on a Flexible Array of Radars and Mesonets (FARMS) visit.

Students and faculty tabling for the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the annual American Meteorological Society conference.

CU �Ǹ�Թ� chapter of the American Meteorological Society recognized for cultivating lasting student networks and leading impactful community outreach.

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All photos courtesy Anna Hagberg

Scientists get a clearer picture of phytoplankton sustaining ocean food webs

Rachel Sauer — Fri, 18 Sep 2026 19:19:38 +0000

Scientists get a clearer picture of phytoplankton sustaining ocean food webs Rachel Sauer Fri, 09/18/2026 - 13:19

Kaio Kish

CU �Ǹ�Թ� researchers develop a tool that can model phytoplankton biomass extremes in the ocean in ways that conventional satellites often can’t

Phytoplankton, the tiny, single-celled organisms that live in oceans, are more important than some realize. They are the base of the marine food web and help countless other species in the oceans thrive and survive.

Satellite technology and its continuous advancements have given the world a better understanding of the oceans and the life within them, specifically phytoplankton. But gaps still remain in what satellites can show about the activity of phytoplankton.

Unfortunately, phytoplankton and the oceans they call home are suffering, says Nicole Lovenduski, a �Ǹ�Թ� professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences (ATOC) and director of the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR). “You can think of (phytoplankton) as the grasses of the terrestrial biosphere,” she says. “They’re the things that build the foundation that everything else eats.”

In a recently published study conducted in partnership between CU �Ǹ�Թ� and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Lovenduski and her research colleagues found that despite what can be seen through satellite imagery, a lot of phytoplankton is obscured—often by clouds or low sunlight.

A mixed phytoplankton community. (Image: Stephanie Anderson/University of Rhode Island/NASA)

The researchers set out to discover what the observational limitations were in detecting phytoplankton biomass extremes in the oceans, building a satellite emulator that mimics the same blind spots a real satellite would encounter: sea ice, clouds, low sun angles. This allowed them to compare what the model predicted to what the satellite actually saw, ultimately revealing the gaps between the two. By combining interdisciplinary expertise, they were able to find the holes in detecting these phytoplankton biomass extremes.

"Statistically, by definition, there have to be extremes in everything—you think about a normal distribution (referencing phytoplankton bloom events), the extremes are on the tail of that bell curve, so mathematically they must exist,” Lovenduski explains. “And I found maybe four papers on this, and that was it. Why isn’t anyone writing about this?... And then I had the a-ha moment: It's because no one can see them in the satellite data."

As Lovenduski explains, extremes are important for the ecosystem: “If there's a huge phytoplankton bloom, that's going to have ramifications for the whole ocean ecosystem in that region. Similarly, if blooms fail to occur, that's going to be devastating for the ecosystem.”

These high extremes refer to a higher-than-normal concentration of phytoplankton in one specific region or area. On the other hand, if a bloom is supposed to happen and it doesn’t—a low extreme—marine life in that region that rely on phytoplankton for their diet can be severely affected, which in turn causes a ripple effect across other species in the ocean.

Combining clouds, ocean and ice

To study these issues, Lovenduski worked with ATOC PhD graduates Genevieve Clow and Samuel Mogen, an INSTAAR postdoctoral scholar, as well as ATOC Professor Jennifer Kay and Michael Levy and Keith Lindsay of the NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory. The researchers aimed to find a better way to visualize these mysterious single-celled organisms that do so much for our marine ecosystem.

To solve the problem of limited visualization of phytoplankton, the team built what they call a satellite emulator within an Earth system model—a tool that allows them to “see” the modeled ocean the same way a satellite does.

"It is an approach that they've used in atmospheric science before to simulate satellite observations of clouds, and we apply that approach to a completely different thing, which is the pigment chlorophyll in the ocean,” Lovenduski says. “Our ability to detect that from space turns out to be a really important limit on our ability to detect extremes.”

Chlorophyll, a green pigment that phytoplankton and plants use to absorb sunlight, plays a similar role in phytoplankton as it does in plants. It is why large phytoplankton clusters and algae appear green. Chlorophyll helps phytoplankton turn sunlight, water and carbon dioxide into energy while releasing oxygen.

However, because of the limitations caused by cloud coverage blocking satellite imaging of chlorophyll, Kay emphasizes that using field samples as well as satellite imagery is vital to a model: “You can learn so much from the assets that we have in space, and sometimes those assets, while providing an incomplete picture of things, can also provide the space-time perspective that's super important for understanding this change in variability.”

Kay also mentions that a combination of field sampling and the use of satellites are critical to understanding what's going on in the oceans, noting how her group often partners with �Ǹ�Թ�-based NCAR scientists to validate Earth system models with data.

As a key part of the research, Clow developed a tool that ran model simulations on a computer. Clow flew a virtual satellite inside the model, sampling the modeled ocean similar to how a real satellite would see the ocean.

Conventional atmospheric satellites wait for reflected light to bounce off the ocean and come back up but, Lovenduski notes, so “if there's a cloud in the way and if the sun angle is really low, there's not enough radiation to come back to the satellite, so we made sure that we included that effect in the model. And if there's sea ice growing on the surface of the ocean, (the satellite) can't see the chlorophyll underneath, but the model still predicts what the chlorophyll is.”

A phytoplankton bloom off the coast of Iceland. (Image: NASA)

By being able to account for these discrepancies in the model, Clow says that the main takeaway from this research is that “our observations of phytoplankton are limited, and that we need to combine observations and models in order to gain a complete picture of what's happening with phytoplankton in the ocean."

One of the most significant findings in this research included the fact that globally, satellites can only detect about 10% of daily low extremes and 19% of daily high extremes. Kay explains that clouds “obscure what you can view in the ocean. It's hard to penetrate into it, and from space you're not going to get that kind of information.”

Clow’s idea for an Earth system model study arose from that issue: “Satellites can only see the surface of the ocean, but in some regions, phytoplankton tend to grow much deeper, and so what satellites can see at the surface isn't representative of what's happening throughout the water column,” Clow explains, adding that this is the main issue with being able to visualize the amount of phytoplankton in a given area.

The stressed oceans

Despite the technical advances represented in the model, the researchers express concerns about the state and health of Earth’s oceans.

“There are so many environmental stressors that are hitting the ocean all at once, so it's getting warmer, and that is in turn is causing the ocean to lose oxygen with time,” Lovenduski says. “That also is making it more difficult for nutrients that are below the surface to get up to the surface and fuel this biological productivity that's so important for the marine food web.

“In addition, the ocean is taking up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which is great for mitigating global warming but actually causing the ocean to become acidic. So, the ecosystems of the ocean are experiencing simultaneous difficult stressors all at once. It doesn't paint a very nice picture."

Phytoplankton observability matters as a sign of what’s happening in our climate, the researchers say. Kay points out that fisheries and other marine-based industries rely on knowledge of extreme events happening in the world. “If we have a heat wave in the atmosphere, we’re kind of miserable,” she says. “So, it can affect life in the ocean as well.”

Kay notes that though Colorado is far from the ocean, residents here still experience similar effects: “I think we can start to expect warmer days and more heat waves and more demand on water resources. I think we all felt that pretty acutely in Colorado this past winter, having 80-degree days in March when we're supposed to have the peak snowpack.”

“Make the model look like reality”

The recently published paper is an important step in continuing research. Clow is beginning a post-doctoral research position at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography, where she’ll model the impact of fish on the carbon cycle.

Lovenduski’s group is applying the “make the model look like reality” idea to a fleet of ocean floats that “live forever, they don't ever run out of battery like the real world floats, but they also can do a profile every four hours instead of every 10 days.”

This, she says, will allow the team to, “improve the frequency of sampling, and then we can look at what an ideal float configuration in the real world looks like for the thing that you're interested in sampling.”

Kay is working with a newly launched satellite, called EarthCARE, to better understand the water cycle and how the energy budget and resources will be affected by measuring precipitation near the surface.

The researchers note that the experience of developing a tool to model the detectability of phytoplankton biomass extremes in the ocean, as especially the interdisciplinary approach to this work, is informing their further research.

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CU �Ǹ�Թ� researchers develop a tool that can model phytoplankton biomass extremes in the ocean in ways that conventional satellites often can’t.

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Top image: A green phytoplankton bloom in the Gulf of Finland. (Photo: NASA)

Come for the beer, stay for the science

Rachel Sauer — Fri, 08 May 2026 00:07:52 +0000

Come for the beer, stay for the science Rachel Sauer Thu, 05/07/2026 - 18:07

Rachel Sauer

The May 11 Earth on Tap event at Rayback Collective in �Ǹ�Թ�, open to all, invites scientists and non-scientists to gather for discussions of climate research

It started, as good things often do, with CAKE. In this case, that’s the Climate Action Knowledge Exchange, a group formed by �Ǹ�Թ� atmospheric and oceanic sciences (ATOC) graduate students Max Elling, Dora Shlosberg and Josh Gooch. They noticed, the further they progressed in their studies, that there are “a lot of different people working in climate, but not necessarily working together,” explains Shlosberg, a PhD student.

If you go

What: Earth on Tap

When: 5:45-7:30 p.m. Monday, May 11

Where: Rayback Collective, 2775 Valmont Road in �Ǹ�Թ�

Who: All are invited

Learn more

So, they formed an interdisciplinary outreach group, CAKE, to break down silos and build partnerships between scholars, industry professionals and community members. From there, CAKE began collaborating with ATOC’s existing Outreach Committee, a group dedicated to educating the public on Earth science through engaging and interactive learning. Outreach teaches children through their SEEDS program, bringing live demonstrations on Earth-system science to local elementary schools.

Then, last semester, they began discussing what more they could be doing to involve adults in science, particularly those who aren’t professional scientists but are science curious.

Earth on Tap organizers express that there has been a lot of misinformation spread about science, and there is sometimes an element of mystery among the public as to what it is local scientists do. Earth on Tap aims to break down these barriers and connect people of all backgrounds to the science being done in their own backyard.

The key is to make it fun, says ATOC PhD student Maggie Scholer. But how?

The answer: Beer.

Not to make the science go down easier, but as a tool to bring science out of the lab and field research sites and into spaces where all are welcome, where community grows, where learning can happen with a chocolate stout and a shared plate of sliders. So, that’s how Earth on Tap came to be.

An event at which all ages are welcome—though you’ll have to show ID if you want that beer—Earth on Tap features climate scientists discussing their research with a focus on how it applies to and affects the broader community.

The second Earth on Tap will be from 5:45-7:30 p.m. Monday, May 11, at the Rayback Collective in �Ǹ�Թ�. Kyle Manley, an interdisciplinary climate scientist, and Molly Wieringa, a postdoctoral fellow with the National Center for Atmospheric research, will discuss fires and public land recreation as well as sea ice and polar climate engineering.

Telling science stories

Monday’s Earth on Tap topic is especially timely, Josh Gooch says, because he and his ATOC colleagues frequently discuss how “to communicate how abnormal this winter has been and contextualize it to the future. Each week we have a weather discussion that one of our professors leads, and we get these branching discussions of, ‘If we make up the precipitation deficit in the future, what does that mean in terms of more fuel for wildfires?’ So, one of our goals (with Earth on Tap) is to set the context of what current weather events that are occurring on the Front Range may lead to in future seasons. That’s a concern that a lot of people share.”

Max Elling, an ATOC PhD student and researcher in the Oceans and Climate Lab, notes that the �Ǹ�Թ� area is interesting because of its large population of scientists as well as its population of non-scientists, who are nevertheless involved in Earth science, yet there still can be a disconnect between the research that’s happening in this area and what community members know about it.

“With Earth on Tap, we’re learning more about what people are curious about,” Elling says, adding that he and his colleagues are learning to better understand their audiences and tailor their outreach style accordingly.

“We have an inherent language that we use as scientists, certain acronyms, and we’re taught to present at conferences where everyone is aware of this language,” Gooch says. “We need to be more aware of situations where an audience member might not be as familiar because they don’t interface with these things every day.”

Jonah Shaw, a post-doctoral associate at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) who spoke at the inaugural Earth on Tap in January, adds that all of his communication training in graduate school was in a conference environment, which doesn’t necessarily translate to climate discussions over beers at the Rayback.

“Something that I think is really important when you’re communicating within a scientific field is a story, but it becomes even more important when you’re communicating with the general public,” Shaw says. “It’s meeting people where they are, so for me, instead of talking about what I do on a day-to-day basis, I talked about a satellite mission I worked on, the story of that mission. I was talking about the narrative aspects and connecting with people’s experiences, and I was incredibly excited to see how well attended it was by non-scientists. Everyone is in their own realm and able to connect (with the science) in their own way.”

Scholer says that Earth on Tap organizers learn from event to event how to better involve audience members in the presentation, including trivia questions with prizes and QR codes that people can scan to submit questions if they’re not inclined to raise their hand. Ideally, she adds, people will come to Earth on Tap and have a great time and be more inclined to take climate action when opportunities arise.

“I think, especially in atmospheric science, ideally the outcome of what we do in the field is actionable for policy makers,” says ATOC PhD student Lucas Howard. “I think having the public more informed about not just the science in terms of outcomes, in terms of uncertainty, but the process of what goes into generating the science, can only have good downstream effects.”

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The May 11 Earth on Tap event at Rayback Collective in �Ǹ�Թ�, open to all, invites scientists and non-scientists to gather for discussions of climate research.

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Students blend suds and science at Earth on Tap

Rachel Sauer — Tue, 03 Mar 2026 23:17:41 +0000

Students blend suds and science at Earth on Tap Rachel Sauer Tue, 03/03/2026 - 16:17

Rachel Sauer

The March 9 event at Rayback Collective in �Ǹ�Թ�, open to all, invites scientists and non-scientists to gather for discussions of climate research

If you go

What: Earth on Tap

When: 5:45-7:30 p.m. Monday, March 9

Where: Rayback Collective, 2775 Valmont Road in �Ǹ�Թ�

Who: All are invited

Learn more

Then, last semester, they began discussing what more they could be doing to involve adults in science, particularly those who aren’t professional scientists but are science curious.

The key is to make it fun, says ATOC PhD student Maggie Scholer. But how?

The answer: Beer.

The second Earth on Tap will be from 5:45-7:30 p.m. Monday, March 9, at the Rayback Collective in �Ǹ�Թ�. Nels Bjarke, a hydrologist with Western Water Assessment and CU �Ǹ�Թ� PhD alumnus, and McKenzie Larson, an ATOC PhD student and researcher in the Synoptic Meteorology Research Group, will discuss the impacts of low seasonal snowfall and the development of downslope windstorms.

Telling science stories

Did you enjoy this article? Subscribe to our newsletter. Passionate about atmospheric and oceanic sciences? Show your support.

The March 9 event at Rayback Collective in �Ǹ�Թ�, open to all, invites scientists and non-scientists to gather for discussions of climate research.

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Meet the scientist who stumbled into the cold—and stayed

Rachel Sauer — Mon, 17 Nov 2025 14:30:00 +0000

Meet the scientist who stumbled into the cold—and stayed Rachel Sauer Mon, 11/17/2025 - 07:30

Clint Talbott

John Cassano, professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at CU �Ǹ�Թ�, lead scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center and fellow at CIRES, recently returned from his 15th research trip to Antarctica

The first time John Cassano flew to Antarctica, he found the 12-hour commercial flight from Los Angeles to Auckland, New Zealand, uncomfortable. Then he boarded a C-130 cargo plane bound for Antarctica.

“Put me on a commercial plane in a middle seat for 12 hours,” he says, chuckling. “I’ll take that over being in a cargo plane any day.”

John Cassano, a CU �Ǹ�Թ� professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences and self-described "weather weenie," has been pursuing research in Antarctica since 1994.

That was January 1994. Cassano was 25 and a graduate student who had agreed to work on a project installing weather stations in Greenland and Antarctica. He figured he’d go once, check Antarctica off his list and move on with life. Thirty years later, he’s still going back.

Cassano did not plan to be a polar researcher. Growing up in New York, he imagined a career in architecture—something tangible, predictable. But a freshman weather class at Montana State University changed everything. “I decided architecture wasn’t for me.”

Meteorology seemed a better fit. Montana State didn’t offer meteorology, so Cassano earned an earth science degree and headed to graduate school at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, intending to study storms. Then came an invitation from Charles Stearns, professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, asking if Cassano would be interested in working on a project in Antarctica.

“I had no real interest in the polar regions,” Cassano admits. “But I wasn’t going to pass up the chance to go to Antarctica once.”

That “once” became a career. After two field seasons with Stearns, Cassano pursued a PhD at the University of Wyoming, focusing on Antarctic meteorology. Today, as a professor in the �Ǹ�Թ�’s Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, he has lived about a year in Antarctica over the course of 15 trips there.

Cassano is also lead scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center and a fellow at CU �Ǹ�Թ�’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences.

'A weather weenie at heart'

The science keeps him coming back. Cassano’s work explores how the atmosphere behaves in Earth’s most extreme environments—knowledge that underpins climate models and weather forecasts worldwide.

The adventure is also alluring. “I’m a weather weenie at heart,” he says. “I like experiencing extremes—strong winds, big snowstorms, really cold temperatures. Antarctica gives me that.”

He recalls standing in minus 56°F air, frostbite nipping his fingers as he launched drones. “I enjoy experiencing those conditions,” he says. “I wouldn’t want to camp in a tent for months like the early explorers, but I like the challenge.”

John Cassano (right) and then-fellow graduate student Mark Seefeldt (left), now a research scientist in Cassano's group at CIRES, on their first trip to Antarctica in 1994. (Photo: John Cassano)

Cassano’s contributions have helped reshape polar science. In 2009, he led the first U.S.-funded drone research campaign in Antarctica, opening new ways to measure the atmosphere where traditional instruments fall short.

“Drones let us probe the boundary layer—the part of the atmosphere that exchanges heat and moisture with the surface,” he explains. “That’s critical for understanding climate.”

Earlier, as a postdoctoral researcher at Ohio State University, Cassano helped modernize Antarctic weather forecasting. The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System, launched in 2001, transformed flight safety.

“When I started going down in the ’90s, forecasters were confident about eight hours out,” he says. “Now it’s five days. That’s huge.”

That’s a big change for several reasons, not the least of which is that an eight-hour forecast could change from the time a plane left Christchurch, New Zealand, and got closer to Antarctica. Planes often had to turn around mid-flight back then, Cassano recalls.

Witnessing dramatic changes

Cassano has witnessed dramatic changes in three decades of research.

Arctic sea ice has declined about 40 percent in recent decades. Antarctic sea ice, once at record highs, now hovers at record lows. Ice shelves are collapsing.

“These changes matter,” he says. “They alter the temperature gradient between the tropics and poles, which drives global weather. Even if you never go to the polar regions, it affects the storms you experience.”

Meanwhile, fieldwork isn’t all adventure. “Emotionally, it’s hard,” Cassano says. “When I was single, I didn’t mind being gone for months. Now, being away from my wife and daughter is tough.”

Comforts are few: shared dorm rooms, institutional food and the knowledge that if something happens at home, he can’t leave. “Once you’re there in August, you’re stuck until October.”

But Cassano treasures the Antarctic community—a self-selecting group of scientists and support staff who thrive in isolation. “You don’t wind up in Antarctica by mistake,” he says.

“Everyone wants to be there. Contractors work six-month stints and spend the rest of the year traveling. It’s like living in a travelogue.”

Kara Hartig (left), CIRES visiting fellow postdoc, and John Cassano (right), in Antarctica during the 2025 research season. (Photo: John Cassano)

He loves the stories: a mechanic who spent his off-season trekking through South America, a cook who had just returned from hiking in Nepal. “You hear all these amazing experiences,” Cassano says. “It’s like living inside a travel magazine.”

Behind every scientific breakthrough lies a vast support system. “I can focus on science because others make sure I have food, water, transportation and a warm place to sleep,” Cassano says. “That infrastructure is critical.”

Cassano worries about the cost of fieldwork and the ripple effects of recent disruptions. “Field projects are expensive,” he says. “COVID and a major McMurdo Station rebuild created a backlog. My project was supposed to be in the field in 2021—we went in 2025. NSF is still catching up.”

Federal priorities are a concern in the current political climate, but Cassano suggests that Antarctic research might be less vulnerable than other kinds of federally sponsored science.

“Antarctic research has always had a geopolitical dimension,” Cassano notes. “The Antarctic Treaty encourages nations to maintain scientific programs. It’s how you keep a seat at the table.”

Constant curiosity

For Cassano, mentoring is particularly rewarding. “I love bringing new people down,” he says. “Seeing Antarctica through their eyes makes me excited again.” On his latest trip, he watched a young researcher, Kara Hartig, CIRES visiting fellow postdoc, as she experienced the ice for the first time. “Her enthusiasm reminded me why I do this.”

That excitement ripples outward. After Cassano shared photos in class, a former student emailed, saying, “I’m on my way to Antarctica to work as a chef at McMurdo,” the largest research station on the continent.

“He just wanted to experience it,” Cassano says. “I think that’s awesome.”

Cassano’s curiosity remains undiminished. On his latest trip, when drones failed to arrive, he improvised with van-mounted sensors, uncovering puzzling temperature swings across the ice shelf.

What might we learn from the data? “It hints at important processes,” he says. “Now we need to go back and figure out why.”

After three decades, Cassano still marvels at the complexity of the atmosphere—and the urgency of understanding it. “Increasing our knowledge is broadly beneficial,” he says. “And for me, it’s just fascinating.”

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Top image: Sunset over the Royal Society Range (background), sea ice in McMurdo Sound (mid-ground) and McMurdo Station from John Cassano's 2025 Antarctic trip. (Photo: John Cassano)

Is drought the new normal?

Rachel Sauer — Thu, 14 Aug 2025 17:56:36 +0000

Is drought the new normal? Rachel Sauer Thu, 08/14/2025 - 11:56

Pedro DiNezio and Timothy Shanahan

Climate models reveal how human activity may be locking the Southwest into permanent drought

A new wave of climate research is sounding a stark warning: Human activity may be driving drought more intensely—and more directly—than previously understood.

The southwestern United States has been in a historic megadrought for much of the past two decades, with its reservoirs including lakes Mead and Powell dipping to record lows and legal disputes erupting over rights to use water from the Colorado River.

This drought has been linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a climate pattern that swings between wet and dry phases every few decades. Since a phase change in the early 2000s, the region has endured a dry spell of epic proportions.

CU �Ǹ�Թ� scientist Pedro DiNezio, along with climate researchers around the world, assert that human activity may be driving drought more intensely—and more directly—than previously understood.

The PDO was thought to be a natural phenomenon, governed by unpredictable natural ocean and atmosphere fluctuations. But new research published in the journal Nature suggests that’s no longer the case.

Working with hundreds of climate model simulations, our team of atmosphere, earth and ocean scientists found that the PDO is now being strongly influenced by human factors and has been since the 1950s. It should have oscillated to a wetter phase by now, but instead it has been stuck. Our results suggest that drought could become the new normal for the region unless human-driven warming is halted.

The science of a drying world

For decades, scientists have relied on a basic physical principle to predict rainfall trends: Warmer air holds more moisture. In a warming world, this means wet areas are likely to get wetter, while dry regions become drier. In dry areas, as temperatures rise, more moisture is pulled from soils and transported away from these arid regions, intensifying droughts.

While most climate models simulate this general pattern, they often underestimate its full extent, particularly over land areas.

Yet countries are already experiencing drought emerging as one of the most immediate and severe consequences of climate change. Understanding what’s ahead is essential, to know how long these droughts will last and because severe droughts can have sweeping affects on ecosystems, economies and global food security.

Human fingerprints on megadroughts

Simulating rainfall is one of the greatest challenges in climate science. It depends on a complex interplay between large-scale wind patterns and small-scale processes such as cloud formation.

Until recently, climate models have not offered a clear picture of how rainfall patterns are likely to change in the near future as greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, power plants and industries continue to heat up the planet. The models can diverge sharply in where, when and how precipitation will change. Even forecasts that average the results of several models differ when it comes to changes in rainfall patterns.

The techniques we deployed are helping to sharpen that picture for North America and across the tropics.

We looked back at the pattern of PDO phase changes over the past century using an exceptionally large ensemble of climate simulations. The massive number of simulations, more than 500, allowed us to isolate the human influences. This showed that the shifts in the PDO were driven by an interplay of increasing warming from greenhouse gas emissions and cooling from sun-blocking particles called aerosols that are associated with industrial pollution.

From the 1950s through the 1980s, we found that increasing aerosol emissions from rapid industrialization following World War II drove a positive trend in the PDO, making the Southwest rainier and less parched.

After the 1980s, we found that the combination of a sharp rise in greenhouse gas emissions from industries, power plants and vehicles and a reduction in aerosols as countries cleaned up their air pollution shifted the PDO into the negative, drought-generating trend that continues today.

This finding represents a paradigm shift in our scientific understanding of the PDO and a warning for the future. The current negative phase can no longer be seen as just a roll of the climate dice—it has been loaded by humans.

Our conclusion that global warming can drive the PDO into its negative, drought-inducing phase is also supported by geological records of past megadroughts. Around 6,000 years ago, during a period of high temperatures, evidence shows the emergence of a similar temperature pattern in the North Pacific and widespread drought across the Southwest.

Tropical drought risks underestimated

The past is also providing clues to future rainfall changes in the tropics and the risk of droughts in locations such as the Amazon.

One particularly instructive example comes from approximately 17,000 years ago. Geological evidence shows that there was a period of widespread rainfall shifts across the tropics coinciding with a major slowdown of ocean currents in the Atlantic.

These ocean currents, which play a crucial role in regulating global climate, naturally weakened or partially collapsed then, and they are expected to slow further this century at the current pace of global warming.

A recent study of that period, using computer models to analyze geologic evidence of earth’s climate history, found much stronger drying in the Amazon basin than previously understood. It also shows similar patterns of aridification in Central America, West Africa and Indonesia.

The results suggest that rainfall could decline precipitously again. Even a modest slowdown of a major Atlantic Ocean current could dry out rainforests, threaten vulnerable ecosystems and upend livelihoods across the tropics.

What comes next

Drought is a growing problem, increasingly driven by human influence. Confronting it will require rethinking water management, agricultural policy and adaptation strategies. Doing that well depends on predicting drought with far greater confidence.

Climate research shows that better predictions are possible by using computer models in new ways and rigorously validating their performance against evidence from past climate shifts. The picture that emerges is sobering, revealing a much higher risk of drought across the world.

Pedro DiNezio is an associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the �Ǹ�Թ�. Timothy Shanahan is an associate professor of geological science at the University of Texas at Austin

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Climate models reveal how human activity may be locking the Southwest into permanent drought.

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Climate change is transforming how scientists think about their roles

Rachel Sauer — Fri, 18 Apr 2025 15:08:35 +0000

Climate change is transforming how scientists think about their roles Rachel Sauer Fri, 04/18/2025 - 09:08

Sarah Kuta

CU �Ǹ�Թ� researcher Pedro DiNezio emphasizes solving the problems of climate change in the here and now

When Pedro DiNezio began studying El Niño and La Niña roughly 20 years ago, human-caused climate change was still a future problem. At that time, researchers spent much of their energy trying to show that humans were, in fact, influencing the world’s climate.

Flash forward two decades, and climate change is no longer some far-off, eventual phenomenon—it’s happening now. Communities and businesses are factoring climate change into their yearly, monthly and even weekly decisions.

Against this backdrop, climate scientists are starting to transition away from purely theoretical research and pivot toward more applied work and consulting. DiNezio, a �Ǹ�Թ� associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, for example, is embarking on a new partnership with WTW, a global insurance broker and risk advisor—an exciting prospect for putting research into practice.

“We can’t stop the drought and the heatwaves, but we can do things to become more resilient, so they don’t affect us as badly—at least for a while,” says Pedro DiNezio, a CU �Ǹ�Թ� associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences.

“I’m going through a career transformation right now because I’m more and more interested in solving problems in the here and now,” says DiNezio. “Because we now know so much about the climate system and about the impact it could have on society, many of us in academia are feeling that it’s time to act.”

Resilience is key

As global temperatures continue to rise, world leaders are taking steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Whether their actions will be enough to stave off catastrophic warming remains to be seen. But, in the meantime, communities and businesses must prepare for and adapt to the unprecedented extremes caused by climate change.

Drought, heatwaves, wildfires, rising sea levels, coastal erosion and other ripple effects are already causing big problems—and scientists like DiNezio might be able to help solve them.

“We can’t stop the drought and the heatwaves, but we can do things to become more resilient, so they don’t affect us as badly—at least for a while,” DiNezio says. “And hopefully we can win that time we need to stabilize the climate.”

For example, research has linked hot weather with an increased risk of accidents and injuries in the workplace. Employees are more likely to suffer heat-related illnesses on hot days. But they’re also more likely to be involved with other seemingly unrelated accidents, too.

From an ethical perspective, companies want to keep their workers safe and healthy. But, from a business perspective, they also want to keep costs down—and workers-compensation insurance is a major expense.

“We’re only starting to learn the full extent of the impact of heatwaves and how we can mitigate them,” says DiNezio. “This is having a huge impact on businesses. So, how do we prevent these accidents?”

As the climate shifts, supply chains are also becoming increasingly vulnerable. When vital waterways like the Panama Canal’s Gatun Lake dry up during droughts, ships cannot reach their intended destinations on time. And those delays cost money.

“You cannot avoid these things, but at least you can know there’s a risk and plan an alternative shipping route,” DiNezio says.

Reinsurance companies are particularly interested in anticipating disasters because they already take a long-term, big-picture view of risk. While a company in one part of the world might be worried about drought and another might be focused on sea level rise, global reinsurance companies see what’s happening around the world and connect the dots.

“Reinsurance companies look for our knowledge because their scale makes them more sensitive to the aggregated effect of climate change over large swaths of the world,” says DiNezio. “They are some of the first businesses to think, ‘How do we anticipate this new climate that is continually changing and prepare for it?’”

Why now?

Climate science is a relatively new field. But, in recent years, it’s matured enough to allow researchers to make predictions that are applicable to communities and businesses.

When vital waterways like the Panama Canal’s Gatun Lake (above) dry up during droughts, ships cannot reach their intended destinations on time. And those delays cost money. (Photo: Valiant/Shutterstock)

“We are starting to see these climate events happening, we have the tools to better predict them, and the climate sector is recognizing this as a problem, as a need,” says DiNezio. “As academics, we cannot ignore them because this is no longer a theoretical exercise.”

Teaching has played an important role in DiNezio’s transformation. After joining the CU �Ǹ�Թ� faculty four years ago, DiNezio began teaching an introductory-level class on climate change for non-science majors.

Every semester, DiNezio updated the curriculum because the climate was changing so fast. That process has been a bit of a reality check.

“When you talk about it with students, especially non-science majors, they are interested in what effect this could have on their lives and their careers,” says DiNezio. “You have to think about these things more concretely.”

Concrete problems

DiNezio, like other climate scientists who are experimenting with consulting, is approaching this new career chapter with a mix of enthusiasm and anticipation.

“I’m diving into something that I haven’t done before,” DiNezio says. “Sometimes, I describe it to my friend like I’m doing another PhD. … A lot of people in my field are going through this transformation and is entirely new.”

But, in some ways, DiNezio suspects solving real-world problems may be easier than solving theoretical ones. Either way, DiNezio is looking forward to the new challenge.

“When you move away from the purely academic, the problems become really concrete,” DiNezio says. “It’s really simple: How do you prevent heat deaths or help farmers mitigate drought? For me, the new thing is the action. The transformation is, how do we act with all this information about weather and climate? It’s very different from the academic approach. Now, we have a goal.”

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CU �Ǹ�Թ� researcher Pedro DiNezio emphasizes solving the problems of climate change in the here and now.

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Goodbye, El Niño, and hello, La Niña

Anonymous — Fri, 24 May 2024 18:36:15 +0000

Goodbye, El Niño, and hello, La Niña Anonymous (not verified) Fri, 05/24/2024 - 12:36

Pedro DiNezio

La Niña is coming, raising the chances of a dangerous Atlantic hurricane season–an atmospheric scientist explains this climate phenomenon

One of the big contributors to the record-breaking global temperatures over the past year—El Niño—is nearly gone, and its opposite, La Niña, is on the way.

Whether that’s a relief or not depends in part on where you live. Above-normal temperatures are still forecast across the U.S. in summer 2024. And if you live along the U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts, La Niña can contribute to the worst possible combination of climate conditions for fueling hurricanes.

Pedro DiNezio, a �Ǹ�Թ� associate professor of atmospheric and ocean sciences who studies El Niño and La Niña, explains why and what’s ahead.

Pedro DiNezio is a �Ǹ�Թ� associate professor of atmospheric and ocean sciences who studies El Niño and La Niña.

What is La Niña?

La Niña and El Niño are the two extremes of a recurring climate pattern that can affect weather around the world.

Forecasters know La Niña has arrived when temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean along the equator west of South America cool by at least half a degree Celsius (0.9 Fahrenheit) below normal. During El Niño, the same region warms instead.

Those temperature fluctuations might seem small, but they can affect the atmosphere in ways that ripple across the planet.

The tropics have an atmospheric circulation pattern called the Walker Circulation, named after Sir Gilbert Walker, an English physicist in the early 20th century. The Walker Circulation is basically giant loops of air rising and descending in different parts of the tropics.

Normally, air rises over the Amazon and Indonesia because moisture from the tropical forests makes the air more buoyant there, and it comes down in East Africa and the eastern Pacific. During La Niña, those loops intensify, generating stormier conditions where they rise and drier conditions where they descend. During El Niño, ocean heat in the eastern Pacific instead shifts those loops, so the eastern Pacific gets stormier.

EL Niño and La Niña also affect the jet stream, a strong current of air that blows from west to east across the U.S. and other mid-latitude regions.

During El Niño, the jet stream tends to push storms toward the subtropics, making these typically dry areas wetter. Conversely, mid-latitude regions that normally would get the storms become drier because storms shift away.

This year, forecasters expect a fast transition to La Niña – likely by late summer. After a strong El Niño, like the world saw in late 2023 and early 2024, conditions tend to swing fairly quickly to La Niña. How long it will stick around is an open question. This cycle tends to swing from extreme to extreme every three to seven years on average, but while El Niños tend to be short-lived, La Niñas can last two years or longer.

How does La Niña affect hurricanes?

Temperatures in the tropical Pacific also control wind shear over large parts of the Atlantic Ocean.

Wind shear is a difference in wind speeds at different heights or direction. Hurricanes have a harder time holding their column structure during strong wind shear because stronger winds higher up push the column apart.

La Niña produces less wind shear, removing a brake on hurricanes. That’s not good news for people living in hurricane-prone regions like Florida. In 2020, during the last La Niña, the Atlantic saw a record 30 tropical storms and 14 hurricanes, and 2021 had 21 tropical storms and seven hurricanes.

Forecasters are already warning that this year’s Atlantic storm season could rival 2021, due in large part to La Niña. The tropical Atlantic has also been exceptionally warm, with sea surface temperature-breaking records for over a year. That warmth affects the atmosphere, causing more atmospheric motion over the Atlantic, fueling hurricanes.

During La Niña, the Walker Circulation intensifies, triggering stronger storms where the air rises. (Graphic: Fiona Martin/NOAA Climate.gov)

Does La Niña mean drought returns to the US Southwest?

The U.S. Southwest’s water supplies will probably be OK for the first year of La Niña because of all the rain over the past winter. But the second year tends to become problematic. A third year, as the region saw in 2022, can lead to severe water shortages.

Drier conditions also fuel more extreme fire seasons in the West, particularly in the fall, when the winds pick up.

What happens in the Southern Hemisphere during La Niña?

The impacts of El Niño and La Niña are almost a mirror image in the Southern Hemisphere.

Chile and Argentina tend to get drought during La Niña, while the same phase leads to more rain in the Amazon. Australia had severe flooding during the last La Niña. La Niña also favors the Indian monsoon, meaning above-average rainfall. The effects aren’t immediate, however. In South Asia, for example, the changes tend to show up a few months after La Niña has officially appeared.

La Niña is quite bad for eastern Africa, where vulnerable communities are already in a long-term drought.

Is climate change affecting La Niña’s impact?

El Niño and La Niña are now happening on top of the effects of global warming. That can exacerbate temperatures, as the world saw in 2023, and precipitation can go off the charts.

Since summer 2023, the world has had 10 straight months of record-breaking global temperatures. A lot of that warmth is coming from the oceans, which are still at record-high temperatures.

La Niña should cool things a bit, but greenhouse gas emissions that drive global warming are still rising in the background. So while fluctuations between El Niño and La Niña can cause short-term temperature swings, the overall trend is toward a warming world.

Pedro DiNezio is an associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the �Ǹ�Թ�.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

La Niña is coming, raising the chances of a dangerous Atlantic hurricane season—an atmospheric scientist explains this climate phenomenon.

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Student undertakes global DIY climate action

Anonymous — Fri, 17 Nov 2023 21:23:00 +0000

Student undertakes global DIY climate action Anonymous (not verified) Fri, 11/17/2023 - 14:23

Clay Bonnyman Evans

CU �Ǹ�Թ� senior Runzhe Li will attend major U.N. climate conference as independent scholar

Runzhe Li left his native Beijing for the �Ǹ�Թ� in part because of his interest in nature.

In major cities around the world, people can “go to a national park, far off site, and it was more like travel,” says the senior, who is majoring in economics with a minor in atmospheric and oceanic sciences (ATOC).

“Here (in �Ǹ�Թ�), we have such a good environment, with the nearby mountains and wildlife, the environmentally sensitive urban design and public policies worth learning from. By the way, �Ǹ�Թ� is heaven for outdoor people.”

While he knew he wanted to study economics, he also was drawn by CU �Ǹ�Թ�’s long-standing reputation in the natural sciences.

Runzhe Li, a CU �Ǹ�Թ� senior studying economics, will attend the United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP28, as an independent scholar.

“Having a hard-science background is important for environmental and economic research,” he says.

But it wasn’t until he visited the upper Amazon region in the past summer and witnessed firsthand Peru’s contrast between the natural environment and economic development that he realized he wanted to focus specifically on the intersection of climate science and economics.

“I took a four-hour boat ride into the primary jungle, and stayed there for half a month,” says Lee, as his American friends usually call him.

“I saw astounding starry skies and incredible wildlife, but it was hard to ignore the current state of limited economic development in that region of Peru. How to protect the environment while safeguarding the right to development is an area I hope to explore in the future.”

Now, Lee will attend the United Nations Climate Change Conference, aka COP28, as an independent scholar, from Nov. 30 through Dec. 12 in the United Arab Emirates.

“I am honored to attend such an important conference as a CU ATOC student, but I value the opportunity to interact with people around the world who care about climate issues in various fields—politicians, academics, multinational companies and organizations and the media. We know there are a lot of disagreements today, so we need to get to know what they are and know what the various stakeholders are thinking,” he says.

“I believe a balance can be created between the economy and the climate.”

The conference is being described as “a milestone moment when the world will take stock of its progress on the Paris Agreement,” the 2015 agreement within the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change addressing greenhouse-gas emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance. COP28 will “help align the efforts on climate action, including measures that need to be put in place to bridge the gaps in progress,” according to the United Nations.

Lee plans to visit a friend in the UAE, one of the world’s largest oil producing countries, before returning to �Ǹ�Թ�.

“It’s the engine of the world, very important for industrial economics,” he says. “I grew up in China and then went to school in the U.S.—the largest demand side of the energy market. Now I want to go to the supply side and see how their business and society works.”

Once he’s back in �Ǹ�Թ�, Lee will speak to students in an introductory course on climate change at the invitation of ATOC Associate Professor Jennifer Kay.

“I hope the information I bring back and my personal passion will help those freshmen students understand why we need (ATOC), and why we all need a stronger science background, and not just ideology,” Lee says.

“The timing is ideal for students (in the) introductory class. We focus the last two weeks of the semester on climate policy and solutions. I’m so inspired by our students,” says Kay, speaking of Lee.

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CU �Ǹ�Թ� senior Runzhe Li will attend major U.N. climate conference as independent scholar.

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From molecule movement to coastal flooding, CU scientists push boundaries

Anonymous — Wed, 27 Sep 2023 17:49:32 +0000

From molecule movement to coastal flooding, CU scientists push boundaries Anonymous (not verified) Wed, 09/27/2023 - 11:49

Rachel Sauer

Researchers Andrés Montoya-Castillo and Julia Moriarty are named U.S. Department of Energy Early Career Researchers, receiving multiyear funding

Two �Ǹ�Թ� researchers have been selected as U.S. Department of Energy Early Career Research Program scientists, a designation intended to support the next generation of U.S. STEM leaders.

Andrés Montoya-Castillo, an assistant professor in the Department of Chemistry, and Julia Moriarty, an assistant professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and a fellow in the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, are among 93 early-career scientists from across the United States whose research spans astrophysics and artificial intelligence to fusion-energy and quantum materials. The 93 scientists will share in $135 million in research funding for projects of up to five years.

“Supporting America’s scientists and researchers early in their careers will ensure the United States remains at the forefront of scientific discovery,” U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm states in the awards announcement. “The funding … gives the recipients the resources to find the answers to some of the most complex questions as they establish themselves as experts in their fields.”

Understanding how molecules dance

Montoya-Castillo’s research is guided, in part, by the need to know which molecules are “going to be good candidates for some technological adventure,” he says. “We need to know how that molecule interacts with light.”

Researcher Andrés Montoya-Castillo studies molecular movement to better understand how they absorb energy.

One of the biggest challenges to understanding molecules is the fact that they don’t stop moving. Far from the static picture on a textbook page, molecules “are always dancing, always jiggling about,” Montoya-Castillo says. “When they jiggle about, sometimes photons or little particles of light that they wouldn’t have been able to absorb, now they can. Or the opposite could be true: They can’t absorb particles we thought they could, because they’re jiggling about, or can’t do it as well.”

Knowing how molecules in liquids and solids absorb light has the potential to support the development of everything from more efficient solar cells to organic semiconductors and biological dyes. But knowing molecules means knowing how they dance, a longtime roadblock in designing materials that maximize energy conversion, say, or enhance quantum computing.

So, Montoya-Castillo and his research group will attack this problem with statistics. “One of deepest aspects of theoretical chemistry is saying, ‘OK, we have a random-looking process. What kind of statistics does this random process follow?” he says. “We’re looking to bridge the randomness to establish a fully predictive simulation.”

The researchers will initially apply their techniques to porphyrins, which are molecules prevalent everywhere on Earth and involved in everything from oxygen transport to energy transfer; they cause the red in blood and the green in plants. Montoya-Castillo notes that porphyrins are ideal for testing the techniques because they are highly tunable and are critical ingredients in natural and artificial energy conversion.

“One of the questions we’re asking is, ‘How do we arrive at design principles to make the next generation of photo catalysts or energy conversion devices, the next generation of quantum computing or quantum sensing?’” he says.

“To do this, we need to achieve two things. The first is realize when our wonderful theories and models are not sufficient to predict and explain the physics that one gets from experiment and generalize our approach. We are doing that by developing the theoretical framework required to predict the spectra of molecules whose constant jiggling makes it difficult to know when they will absorb photons.

“The second is to exploit the current models when they work to give us insight. And fast. To tackle this second challenge, we’re working on being able to exploit experimental data to parameterize the model automatically and use this as a starting point to predict how molecules interact with light. Then we’ll be able to match our predictions to experiment, refine the model and our understanding, and speed up feedback loop of theory-experiment-design, which has traditionally been a very computationally complex and expensive procedure.

He adds that, “One of the final things we’re doing is developing a machine-learning framework to reduce this huge computational cost so we can really accelerate the pathway to tweaking these molecules to get some technological advances going for us.”

Climate change and coastal flooding

For Moriarty, a coast oceanographer by training, the path to her DOE-supported research began with a practical observation: As storms become slower and wetter because of climate change, they are dumping a lot more rain on coastal areas. Couple that with sea level rise caused by climate change, and coastal urban centers are increasingly at risk for floods.

Julia Moriarity, a CU �Ǹ�Թ� researcher, uses process-based and statistical machine-learning modeling to understand how flooding affects coastal areas.

“When urban areas flood, you can have sewage systems flood, water-treatment plants flood, nuclear power plants flood, because all these facilities have to be located near water,” Moriarty says. “So, the question is: when a flood causes polluted water to enter the local waterways, what’s that polluted water’s fate?”

Not only can floods contaminate local waterways by spreading bacterial or even radioactive contaminants into them, but they can unleash a cascade of events in which excess nutrient levels can stimulate harmful algae blooms, reduce oxygen levels in the water and reduce water clarity and quality, sometimes leading to “dead zones.”

Moriarty’s research combines process-based and statistical machine-learning modeling to analyze how floods of coastal infrastructure affect pollutant and nutrient fluxes in local waterways, and their impact on biogeochemical processes. A significant aim is to better understand how extreme floods degrade water quality and which aspects of flooding are predictable and which are not.

“If something’s predictable, it’s a lot easier to plan for it,” Moriarty says.

The research will use Baltimore, Maryland, as a case study, in collaboration with the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC) Urban Integrated Field Laboratory. Using data from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model climate model, as well as a new Baltimore hydrodynamic-biogeochemistry model, Moriarty and her research team aim to better understand how coastal urban flooding impacts local waterway biogeochemistry in different climate scenarios.

Further, the researchers want to use a combination of machine learning and sensitivity tests of the process-based model they develop to scale up what they learn from local observations in Baltimore to coastal-urban systems worldwide.

“The better we can understand and predict these events, the better we can plan for them,” Moriarty says. “It costs a lot less to mitigate risks in advance of events than to clean them up afterward.”

Top image: Glenn Asakawa/CU �Ǹ�Թ�

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Researchers Andrés Montoya-Castillo and Julia Moriarty are named U.S. Department of Energy Early Career Researchers, receiving multiyear funding.

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