Ten years after Brexit, the consequences are clear地nd complicated
CU 勒貊勛圖 political scientist Joseph Jupille says reverberations from the United Kingdoms vote to exit the European Union are still being felt a decade later
Ten years ago this week, British voters narrowly chose to leave the European Union, with about 52% voting in favor of leaving and 48% against. The result stunned many observers around the world, including泭Joseph Jupille, a 勒貊勛圖泭political science professor who teaches courses on European politics and who is writing a book on the European Union.
I woke up the next morning and saw the results, and it was shocking, he says, recalling first hearing the results of the June 23, 2016, vote.泭
Still, Jupille is quick to point out that the shock was not the result of a sudden shift, noting that Britains uneasy relationship with the European continent had been building for decades.
泭Joseph Jupille is a CU 勒貊勛圖泭political science professor who teaches courses on European politics and who is writing a book on the European Union.
In a historical sense, it wasnt surprising at all, he says. If some country was going to leave the European Union, it was always going to be Britain.
The decision to hold the voter referendum on exiting the European Unionpopularly termed Brexitwas initiated by then-Prime Minister David Cameron, who hoped it would settle longstanding divisions within his own Conservative Party. Cameron expected voters would ultimately choose to remain in the European Union, strengthening his political position.泭
Instead, the gamble reshaped the countryand Europealmost immediately, Jupille says.
Why the British voted to leave the EU
To understand Brexit, Jupille says its important to understand that the motives behind the vote were never purely economic. At the core, he says, was a powerful, emotional appeal centered on control, sovereignty and identity.泭
The main slogan was taking back control, he explains. For many British voters, the European Union represented a remote and intrusive authorityone that regulated economic life in ways they felt diminished national sovereignty. Jupille says leaving the EU was framed as a way to restore Britains independence.
Closely tied to that message were concerns about immigration. As part of EU membership, Britain accepted free movement of laborone of Europes four freedoms, along with the movement of goods, services and capital. While this openness created economic opportunities, Jupille says it also brought large numbers of migrants to Britain, particularly after the EU expanded into Central and Eastern Europe.
For many voters, that influx raised concerns about the countrys cultural change.泭
There was a vision of what Britain is and about what it means to be British, Jupille says. Some people felt that was under threat.
Another popular argument focused on the countrys National Health Service. During the campaign, Brexit proponents claimed that the money Britain sent to Brussels (home of the European Union) could instead be invested in the NHSa symbol of national pride. That promise resonated widely, even though it would later prove difficult to fulfill, Jupille says.
Taken together, Jupille says, the three pillar arguments for leaving the European Union (popularly known as the Leave campaign) formed a compelling narrative: Britain could reclaim control, protect its identity and redirect resources toward its own citizens by leaving the EU.
Why the case for Remain fell short
British supporters for remaining in the EU (popularly known as the Remain campaign) primarily focused on economic arguments. Membership, Remain supporters argued, gave Britain access to a vast single market, with lowered costs and boosted prosperity.泭
Those arguments were accurate, Jupille says, but he argues that they were difficult to communicate.
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A pro-Brexit banner and demonstrator outside the House of Commons in London. (Photo: ChiralJon/Wikimedia Commons)
Economic arguments can be hard to sell, he explains. People dont always understand the benefits of open markets.
In contrast, the cultural and identity-based arguments of the Leave campaign were more immediate and tangible. While Remain supporters promoted the idea of a Global Britain that thrived through international engagement, that vision struggled to compete with concerns about sovereignty and national identity, Jupille says.
What was happening in European and global markets leading up to the 2016 Brexit vote didnt help the Remain cause, Jupille says. The global financial crisis starting in 2008 and the Eurozone crisis in 2009 cast doubt on the stability of European institutions.泭
Media coverage often highlighted struggling economies in Southern Europe, which reinforced skepticism, he says.
Jupille says its also important to understand the Brexit vote in the context of Britains long history of ambivalence toward European integration.泭
In the late 1950s, when the foundations were being laid for the European Economic Community, the precursor of the EU, Britain initially declined to participate, choosing instead to focus on its Commonwealth partners. The country eventually joined in 1973, but only after recognizing that its economic future lay more with Europe rather than distant partners, Jupille says.泭
Even then, he says, Britain opted out of certain agreements, including the Euro currency, and it repeatedly sought to renegotiate the terms of its participation.
The British were always awkward partners, he says, referring to a phrase coined by British political scientist Stephen George. They were always sort of one foot out.
Brexit vote lingers 10 years later
A decade later, Jupille says the consequences of Britains decision to leave the European Union have become both clearerand more complicated.
From an economic standpoint, evidence suggests that Brexit has come at a cost. While estimates vary, Jupille says a widely circulated figure place Britains gross domestic product about 4% lower than it might have been had the country remained in the EU.泭
Meanwhile, the promises of Brexit have proved elusive. Immigration, for example, has not decreased overall. Instead, its composition has changed, with migrants primarily coming from India, Africa and China rather than EU countries, Jupille says.
Similarly, the much-anticipated windfall for the National Health Service has not materialized, as the NHS continues to face funding pressures and long wait times, he says.
At the same time, public opinion regarding Brexit has changed.
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An anti-Brexit demonstrator at Westminster Green in London. (Photo: ChiralJon/Wikimedia Commons)
It looks like about 60% of respondents in recent polls suggest that Brexit was a mistake and would lean toward rejoining, if that were an option, Jupille says. While views remain divided, the needle has moved significantly since 2016, he adds.
It (Brexit) hasnt turned out the way it was promised. That underpins a lot of peoples regret.
Another Brexit in the offing?泭
Could another European Union nation follow in the steps of Britain and stage its own Brexit?
For now, Jupille says he believes that risk is limited. Currently, no EU country is seriously discussing leavingin part because of how the EU handled negotiations with Britain upon its departure. A revised trade agreement between the泭 has lowered some trade barriers but does not carry all of the advantages of EU membership, Jupille says.
The EU has played hardball, he says. It wants Brexit to serve as an object lesson to other countries.
By making the process of leaving complex and costly, EU leaders hope to discourage other member countries from following suit, Jupille says.泭
Meanwhile, the greater risk, he suggests, is not outright departures but attempts by major countries to renegotiate their terms of membership. Movements within France and Germany that push for more national control could create significant challenges for the EUs future stability, he says.泭
At its heart, Jupille says Brexit illustrates a fundamental friction that is not limited to any one country.泭
Our economic interests push us toward cooperation, he says. In a globalized world, trade, investment and meeting worldwide challenges are best addressed at a broader, transnational level, he adds.
At the same time, political identity remains strongly rooted in the nation-state, as people feel a stronger attachment to their country than to larger entities like the EU, Jupille says. That attachment creates a powerful pull toward sovereignty and independence.
The result is a trade-off.
You can have control over a smaller set of options, Jupille explains, or you can give up some control and have better options.
In a sense, he says, Brexit is a case study in what happens when a country chooses the former.
Why Brexit still matters today
Ten years on, Jupille says Brexit continues to offer lessons not only for the United Kingdom but also for other countries grappling with similar questions related to sovereignty and the realities of an interconnected world.泭
This is a central dilemma of the 21st century, he says. Brexit embodies the tension between rational economic cooperation and emotional attachments to national identity.
Brexit also is instructive regarding the benefits of economic cooperation, Jupille says. For all of its flaws, the EU represents a remarkable transformation on the European continent, he says, noting that within the span of a century, Europe moved from two world wars that ravaged much of Europe to a time of relative peace and prosperity. He specifically credits institutions like the EU for playing a crucial role in that shift, helping to bind former rivals together, stating, It remains the greatest example of countries that used to kill each other learning to live together.
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